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Lest we forget: comparing retrospective and prospective assessments of adverse childhood experiences in the prediction of adult health
Author(s) -
Reuben Aaron,
Moffitt Terrie E.,
Caspi Avshalom,
Belsky Daniel W.,
Harrington Honalee,
Schroeder Felix,
Hogan Sean,
Ramrakha Sandhya,
Poulton Richie,
Danese Andrea
Publication year - 2016
Publication title -
journal of child psychology and psychiatry
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 3.652
H-Index - 211
eISSN - 1469-7610
pISSN - 0021-9630
DOI - 10.1111/jcpp.12621
Subject(s) - retrospective cohort study , prospective cohort study , medicine , retrospective memory , population , pediatrics , psychiatry , cognition , episodic memory , environmental health , childhood memory
Background Adverse childhood experiences ( ACE s; e.g. abuse, neglect, and parental loss) have been associated with increased risk for later‐life disease and dysfunction using adults’ retrospective self‐reports of ACE s. Research should test whether associations between ACE s and health outcomes are the same for prospective and retrospective ACE measures. Methods We estimated agreement between ACE s prospectively recorded throughout childhood (by Study staff at Study member ages 3, 5, 7, 9, 11, 13, and 15) and retrospectively recalled in adulthood (by Study members when they reached age 38), in the population‐representative Dunedin cohort ( N = 1,037). We related both retrospective and prospective ACE measures to physical, mental, cognitive, and social health at midlife measured through both objective (e.g. biomarkers and neuropsychological tests) and subjective (e.g. self‐reported) means. Results Dunedin and U.S. Centers for Disease Control ACE distributions were similar. Retrospective and prospective measures of adversity showed moderate agreement ( r = .47, p < .001; weighted Kappa = .31, 95% CI : .27–.35). Both associated with all midlife outcomes. As compared to prospective ACE s, retrospective ACE s showed stronger associations with life outcomes that were subjectively assessed, and weaker associations with life outcomes that were objectively assessed. Recalled ACE s and poor subjective outcomes were correlated regardless of whether prospectively recorded ACE s were evident. Individuals who recalled more ACE s than had been prospectively recorded were more neurotic than average, and individuals who recalled fewer ACE s than recorded were more agreeable. Conclusions Prospective ACE records confirm associations between childhood adversity and negative life outcomes found previously using retrospective ACE reports. However, more agreeable and neurotic dispositions may, respectively, bias retrospective ACE measures toward underestimating the impact of adversity on objectively measured life outcomes and overestimating the impact of adversity on self‐reported outcomes. Associations between personality factors and the propensity to recall adversity were extremely modest and warrant further investigation. Risk predictions based on retrospective ACE reports should utilize objective outcome measures. Where objective outcome measurements are difficult to obtain, correction factors may be warranted.