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Smoking rate and periodontal disease prevalence: 40‐year trends in Sweden 1970–2010
Author(s) -
Bergstrom Jan
Publication year - 2014
Publication title -
journal of clinical periodontology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 3.456
H-Index - 151
eISSN - 1600-051X
pISSN - 0303-6979
DOI - 10.1111/jcpe.12293
Subject(s) - medicine , attributable risk , periodontal disease , smoking prevalence , prevalence , demography , population , relative risk , epidemiology , disease , periodontitis , environmental health , dentistry , confidence interval , sociology
Aim To investigate the relationship between smoking rate and periodontal disease prevalence in Sweden. Material and Methods National smoking rates were found from Swedish National Statistics on smoking habits. Based on smoking rates for the years 1970–2010, periodontal disease prevalence estimates were calculated for the age bracket 40–70 years and smoking‐associated relative risks between 2.0 and 20.0. The impact of smoking on the population was estimated according to the concept of population attributable fraction. Results The age‐standardized smoking rate in Sweden declined from 44% in 1970 to 15% in 2010. In parallel with the smoking decline the calculated prevalence estimate of periodontal disease dropped from 26% to 12% assuming a 10‐fold smoking‐associated relative risk. Even at more moderate magnitudes of the relative risk, e.g. 2‐fold or 5‐fold, the prevalence decrease was quite tangible, suggesting that the current prevalence in Sweden is about 20–50% of the level 40 years ago. The population attributable fraction, estimating the portion of the disease that would have been avoided in the absence of smoking, was 80% in 1970 and 58% in 2010 at a ten‐fold relative risk. Conclusion Calculated estimates of periodontal disease prevalence are closely related to real changes in smoking rate. As smoking rate drops periodontal disease prevalence will drop.