Prediction of Blood Pressure and Blood Pressure Change With a Genetic Risk Score

The authors investigated whether a genetic risk score (GRS) constructed of 32 single nucleotide polymorphisms would predict incident hypertension and blood pressure (BP) change over time in a population cohort during an 11‐year follow‐up (n=5402 at baseline, 3266 at follow‐up). In multivariable models, GRS was associated with higher systolic/diastolic BP values at baseline (β±standard error [SE], 1.04±0.14/1.11±0.13 mm Hg; P <.0001 for both) and at reinvestigation (β±SE, 0.84±0.18/0.79±0.16 mm Hg; P <.0001 for both). Among participants who were normotensive at baseline (n=2045), GRS was not independently associated with systolic/diastolic BP change over time (β±SE, 0.16±0.18/0.20±0.18 mm Hg; P ≥.28 for both). In participants in the top tertile of the GRS, as compared with the bottom tertile, the predicted increase in systolic/diastolic BP was 1.18±0.78/0.70±0.49 mm Hg ( P =.046/.15) greater and the odds ratio for incident hypertension was 33% higher ( P =.03). These data show that GRS is strongly associated with BP but weakly associated with BP increase and incident hypertension in a late middle‐aged population.