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Applying dynamic species distribution modelling to lek‐mating species
Author(s) -
Sadoti Giancarlo,
Albright Thomas P.,
Johnson Kristine
Publication year - 2017
Publication title -
journal of biogeography
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.7
H-Index - 158
eISSN - 1365-2699
pISSN - 0305-0270
DOI - 10.1111/jbi.12886
Subject(s) - metapopulation , ecology , occupancy , biological dispersal , lek mating , geography , mating , population , species distribution , habitat , abundance (ecology) , extinction (optical mineralogy) , biology , mate choice , demography , paleontology , sociology
Aim Lek‐mating species, in which males congregate to display and copulate with females, are of long‐standing behavioural, economic and conservation interest. Monitoring programs often target areas in which these species aggregate for mating (lek arenas) because of the often cryptic behaviours of these species when away from lek arenas. Due to survey methodologies and the ecology of many lek‐mating species, the building of species distribution models (SDMs) requires researchers to consider issues that are generally absent when modelling distributions of non‐lek‐mating species. We describe these considerations and illustrate the advantages of employing dynamic SDM s to address non‐equilibrium between a lek‐mating species (Lesser Prairie‐Chicken Tympanuchus pallidicinctus ) and its environment. Location New Mexico, U.S.A. Methods We employed a 27‐year data set of 2771 lek surveys from a T. pallidicinctus metapopulation to build dynamic SDM s using multi‐season occupancy modelling. We considered covariates (1) indexing past abundance and distribution patterns expected to influence dispersal and local persistence, (2) describing landscape and weather dynamics expected to influence local recruitment, and (3) describing survey‐level conditions expected to influence lek attendance. Results The most supported dynamic SDM indicated an overall decline in occurrence and an ending distribution more restricted to the northern part of the 1222 km 2 study area. Local colonization was best predicted by weather and landscape dynamics, while local extinction was best predicted by population processes and weather. Main conclusions Conservation of T. pallidicinctus will likely face challenges from (1) the reduced likelihood of colonization in areas of historical shrub‐targeting herbicide application and (2) projected patterns of seasonal temperature and precipitation under climate change. In considering lek‐mating species in general, we recommend the use of dynamic SDM s for an improved understanding of factors influencing distributions through time. Our approach and related efforts represent an important step in forecasting distributions under projected scenarios of environmental change to assist the conservation of these species.