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The combined effects of land‐use legacies and novel fire regimes on bird distributions in the Mediterranean
Author(s) -
Cáceres Miquel,
Brotons Lluís,
Aquilué Núria,
Fortin MarieJosée
Publication year - 2013
Publication title -
journal of biogeography
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.7
H-Index - 158
eISSN - 1365-2699
pISSN - 0305-0270
DOI - 10.1111/jbi.12111
Subject(s) - shrubland , biological dispersal , habitat , ecological succession , ecology , mediterranean climate , climate change , fire regime , environmental science , vegetation (pathology) , geography , occupancy , biodiversity , distribution (mathematics) , species distribution , land cover , fire ecology , land use, land use change and forestry , land use , ecosystem , biology , medicine , population , mathematical analysis , demography , mathematics , pathology , sociology
Aim We investigate first whether fire regimes resulting from the combination of climate change and fire‐fighting policy may affect species distributions in Mediterranean landscapes, and second to what extent distributional dynamics may be constrained by the spatial legacy of historical land use. Location Catalonia (north‐eastern Spain). Methods We modelled the distributional responses of 64 forest and open‐habitat bird species to nine fire‐regime scenarios, defined by combining different levels of climate change and fire suppression efficiency. A fire‐succession model was used to stochastically simulate land‐cover changes between 2000 and 2050 under these scenarios. We used species distribution models to predict habitat suitability and occupancy dynamics under either no dispersal or full dispersal assumptions. Results Under many simulated scenarios, the succession from shrubland to forest dominated over the creation of new low‐vegetation areas derived from wildfires. Consequently, open‐habitat specialists were the group most affected by losses of suitable habitat. Fire regimes obtained under scenarios including high fire suppression efficiency resulted in a larger number of bird species experiencing reductions in their distribution area. Main conclusions Anthropogenic factors, such as historical land‐use change and fire suppression, can drive regional distribution dynamics in directions opposite to those expected from climatic trends. This raises the question of what drivers and interactions should be given priority in the prediction of biodiversity responses to global change at the regional scale.