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Analysts’ and Investors’ Reactions to Consistent Earnings Signals
Author(s) -
Caylor Marcus L.,
Christensen Theodore E.,
Johnson Peter M.,
Lopez Thomas J.
Publication year - 2015
Publication title -
journal of business finance and accounting
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.282
H-Index - 77
eISSN - 1468-5957
pISSN - 0306-686X
DOI - 10.1111/jbfa.12163
Subject(s) - earnings surprise , earnings , post earnings announcement drift , explanatory power , economics , surprise , earnings response coefficient , econometrics , financial economics , monetary economics , finance , psychology , social psychology , philosophy , epistemology
We investigate (1) whether the trajectory of the current‐quarter earnings expectation path (defined by the signs of the forecast revision and the earnings surprise) provides information about future firm performance, and (2) the extent to which analysts and investors react to that information. Our results indicate that analysts underreact more to earnings information revealed by consistent‐signal earnings expectation paths than to earnings information communicated by inconsistent‐signal expectation paths. We also find that the current earnings expectation path provides incremental explanatory power for future abnormal returns, even after controlling for the sign and magnitude of the earnings surprise. Overall, our evidence is consistent with underreaction stemming from analysts’ and investors’ bias in processing the information in consistent‐signal earnings expectation paths.