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Effects of Land Use and Climate Change on Stream Temperature I: Daily Flow and Stream Temperature Projections
Author(s) -
Daraio Joseph A.,
Bales Jerad D.
Publication year - 2014
Publication title -
jawra journal of the american water resources association
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.957
H-Index - 105
eISSN - 1752-1688
pISSN - 1093-474X
DOI - 10.1111/jawr.12179
Subject(s) - streamflow , environmental science , streams , climate change , hydrology (agriculture) , stream flow , land use, land use change and forestry , atmospheric sciences , drainage basin , land use , ecology , geology , geography , computer science , computer network , cartography , geotechnical engineering , biology
Freshwater mussels (order Unionida) are a highly imperiled group of organisms that are at risk from rising stream temperatures ( T ). There is a need to understand the potential effects of land use ( LU ) and climate change ( CC ) on stream T and have a measure of uncertainty. We used available downscaled climate projections and LU change simulations to simulate the potential effects on average daily stream T from 2020 to 2060. Monte Carlo simulations were run, and a novel technique to analyze results was used to assess changes in hydrologic and stream T response. Simulations of daily mean T were used as input to our stochastic hourly T model. CC effects were on average two orders of magnitude greater than LU impacts on mean daily stream T . LU change affected stream T primarily in headwater streams, on average up to 2.1°C over short durations, and projected CC affected stream T , on average 2.1‐3.3°C by 2060. Daily mean flow and T ratios from Monte Carlo simulations indicated greater variance in the response of streamflow (up to 55%) to LU change than in the response of stream T (up to 9%), and greater variance in headwater stream segments compared to higher order stream segments for both streamflow and T response. Simulations indicated that combined effects of climate and LU change were not additive, suggesting a complex interaction and that forecasting long‐term stream T response requires simulating CC and LU change simultaneously.