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Entry of H 5 N 1 highly pathogenic avian influenza virus into E urope through migratory wild birds: a qualitative release assessment at the species level
Author(s) -
Gale P.,
Goddard A.,
Breed A.C.,
Irvine R.M.,
Kelly L.,
Snary E.L.
Publication year - 2014
Publication title -
journal of applied microbiology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.889
H-Index - 156
eISSN - 1365-2672
pISSN - 1364-5072
DOI - 10.1111/jam.12489
Subject(s) - influenza a virus subtype h5n1 , highly pathogenic , biology , waterfowl , bird flu , avian influenza virus , influenza a virus , geography , bird migration , zoology , veterinary medicine , virus , ecology , virology , habitat , medicine
Abstract Aims To estimate qualitatively the probabilities of release (or entry) of Eurasian lineage H 5 N 1 highly pathogenic avian influenza ( HPAI ) virus into G reat B ritain ( GB ), the N etherlands and Italy through selected higher risk species of migratory water bird. Methods and Results The probabilities of one or more release events of H 5 N 1 HPAI per year ( P release ) were estimated qualitatively for 15 avian species, including swans, geese, ducks and gulls, by assessing the prevalence of H 5 N 1 HPAI in different regions of the world (weighted to 2009) and estimates of the total numbers of birds migrating from each of those regions. The release assessment accommodated the migration times for each species in relation to the probabilities of their surviving infection and shedding virus on arrival. Although the predicted probabilities of release of H 5 N 1 per individual bird per year were low , very low or negligible , P release was high for a few species reflecting the high numbers of birds migrating from some regions. Values of P release were generally higher for the Netherlands than for GB , while ducks and gulls from Africa presented higher probabilities to Italy compared to the N etherlands and GB . Conclusions Bird species with high values of P release in GB , the N etherlands and I taly generally originate from within Europe based on data for global prevalence of H5N1 between 2003 and 2009 weighted to 2009. Potential long‐distance transfer of H5N1 HPAI from North Asia and Eurasia to GB , the N etherlands and Italy is limited to a few species and does not occur from S outh‐ E ast A sia, an area where H 5 N 1 is endemic. Significance and Impact of the Study The approach accommodates biogeographical conditions and variability in the estimated worldwide prevalence of the virus. The outputs of this release assessment can be used to inform surveillance activities through focusing on certain species and migratory pathways.