A predictive model of V ibrio cholerae for combined temperature and organic nutrient in aquatic environments

Aims To develop a predictive model for V ibrio cholerae in sea water. Methods and Results The growth curves of V . cholerae NE ‐9 at different temperatures (range from 10 to 30°C) and chemical oxygen demand ( COD ) concentration (range from 5 to 40 mg l −1 ) were determined. The modified logistic model and Baranyi model were chosen to regress the growth curves. A new method for modelling effects of temperature and COD on the specific growth rate (μ) was successfully developed by a combination of modified square root–type equation and saturation growth rate model. The coefficient of determination ( R 2 ), bias factor ( B f) and accuracy factor ( A f) were taken to assess the performance of the established model. Logistic model produced a good fit to the observed data ( R 2  = 0·952). However, the Baranyi model provided biologically plausible parameter estimates. The overall predictions for V . cholerae NE ‐9 growth agreed well with observed plate counts, and the average R 2 , B f and A f values were 0·967, 1·198 and 1·201, respectively. Conclusion The predicted model agreed well with observed data, and the result can be applied for the prediction of V .  cholerae in actual environments. Significance and Impact of the Study The results of this study provide the basis for the prediction of V .  cholerae in sea water.