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Estimating and maximizing the utility of sequential selection decisions with a probationary period
Author(s) -
Corte Wilfried
Publication year - 1998
Publication title -
british journal of mathematical and statistical psychology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 3.157
H-Index - 51
eISSN - 2044-8317
pISSN - 0007-1102
DOI - 10.1111/j.2044-8317.1998.tb00669.x
Subject(s) - selection (genetic algorithm) , extension (predicate logic) , cutoff , computer science , operations research , mathematics , econometrics , statistics , operations management , artificial intelligence , economics , physics , quantum mechanics , programming language
This paper provides a double extension of the two‐stage sequential model developed by Cronbach & Gleser (1965) to estimate the utility of a single‐cohort personnel selection decision. The first extension generalizes the formulation of the two‐stage procedure to that of a general multi‐stage model, whereas the second addresses the situation in which some of the newly hired employees are later judged to perform at an unacceptable level and are therefore dismissed at the end of the training and probationary period. Thus, the new model and the corresponding computational procedure can be used to estimate the utility of selecting sequentially either a fixed quota of selectees (FQS) or a fixed quota of successful selectees (FQSS). In addition, the paper presents an efficient procedure to derive predictor cutoff scores that maximise the utility of the overall selection decision.