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Statistical and metastatistical considerations in analysing the desirability of human Bayesian conservatism
Author(s) -
Navon David
Publication year - 1981
Publication title -
british journal of mathematical and statistical psychology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 3.157
H-Index - 51
eISSN - 2044-8317
pISSN - 0007-1102
DOI - 10.1111/j.2044-8317.1981.tb00629.x
Subject(s) - odds , conservatism , bayesian probability , econometrics , odds ratio , psychology , statistics , mathematics , logistic regression , political science , politics , law
Goldstein (1979) showed that interdependence of Bernoulli data can lead to either overestimation or underestimation of odds depending on the type of interdependence, and inferred that conservative behaviour is not a necessary outcome of interdependence. It is argued here that the effect of data interdependence on posterior odds in the real world cannot be determined by pure statistical reasoning. Logical arguments suggest that interdependence which requires conservative revisions is most typical. Thus, a Bayesian processor acting on the assumption that data are conditionally independent is likely to end up with inflated posterior odds.