Open AccessASSESSING COMPONENTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN VPA ABUNDANCE AND MORTALITY ESTIMATES USING AN ALTERNATIVE EXPLOITATION RATE‐BASED ALGORITHM
Author(s) -
HILLARY R. M.
Publication year - 2012
Publication title -
natural resource modeling
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.28
H-Index - 32
eISSN - 1939-7445
pISSN - 0890-8575
DOI - 10.1111/j.1939-7445.2011.00113.x
Subject(s) - variance (accounting) , generalization , fishing , stock assessment , econometrics , key (lock) , population , statistics , stock (firearms) , algorithm , computer science , variance decomposition of forecast errors , mathematics , ecology , economics , biology , geography , demography , mathematical analysis , accounting , computer security , archaeology , sociology
Using an exploitation rate (not fishing mortality) based virtual population analysis (VPA) algorithm, which is itself a generalization of the Pope approximation to the original VPA equations, I show how to derive variance estimates for the key VPA outputs (recruitment, SSB, exploitation rates) given variance information on the key inputs (catch‐at‐age/terminal exploitation rates). Given the alternative VPA algorithm permits closed‐form solutions for the outputs in terms of the inputs, the delta method is employed to obtain the variance estimates, removing the need for complex simulation techniques. Using North Sea herring data as an example, the method’s utility is demonstrated by exploring the impact of aging error in the catch data and tuning error on the precision of estimates of SSB, recruitment and exploitation rates, and the parameters of the stock‐recruit relationship.