Open AccessCLIMATE CHANGE AND OPTIMAL ROTATION IN A FLAMMABLE FOREST
Author(s) -
STOLLERY KENNETH R.
Publication year - 2005
Publication title -
natural resource modeling
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.28
H-Index - 32
eISSN - 1939-7445
pISSN - 0890-8575
DOI - 10.1111/j.1939-7445.2005.tb00150.x
Subject(s) - climate change , flammable liquid , environmental science , rotation (mathematics) , fossil fuel , carbon offset , ratification , climate change mitigation , greenhouse gas , natural resource economics , kyoto protocol , carbon fibers , carbon sink , environmental protection , atmospheric sciences , ecology , economics , mathematics , chemistry , biology , physics , political science , geometry , algorithm , politics , composite number , law , organic chemistry
. This paper builds a Faustmann‐based model to study the effects of increased climate‐induced fire risk on the optimal forest rotation period. Simulations using species prevalent in North American forests indicate that both the commercial and socially optimal rotation ages decline as the risk increases. The reduced carbon absorbed by the standing timber can then create a positive feedback effect. This has potentially important policy implications. The Kyoto ratification agreement reached in the autumn of 2001 was dependent on allowing the ‘Umbrella Group’ of countries to use their forests' carbon‐absorbing ability to offset their need for fossil fuel emission reductions. This carbon‐absorbing ability will decline if rotation ages decrease with increased fire risk, weakening the force of the argument for allowing these countries to use their carbon ‘sinks’ to avoid reducing anthropomorphic emissions.