Open AccessFLOODING ON THE EEL RIVER: SYSTEM THEORETIC TIME SERIES, TRANSFER FUNCTION TIME SERIES, AND STRUCTURAL MODEL FORECASTS
Author(s) -
Havenner Arthur,
Tracy John
Publication year - 1992
Publication title -
natural resource modeling
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.28
H-Index - 32
eISSN - 1939-7445
pISSN - 0890-8575
DOI - 10.1111/j.1939-7445.1992.tb00273.x
Subject(s) - series (stratigraphy) , time series , multivariate statistics , hydrology (agriculture) , flooding (psychology) , environmental science , computer science , geology , mathematics , statistics , paleontology , geotechnical engineering , psychology , psychotherapist
Three models are developed to forecast precipitation, stream flow, and suspended sediment load for the Middle Fork Eel River basin near Dos Rios, California. The models are a structural model, a transfer function time series model, and a multivariate time series model based on the ideas of linear systems theory. Monthly observations from 1961 through 1970 were used to specify and estimate the models, and their performance was evaluated using 36 observations from 1971 through 1973. The comparisons show that all of the models are able to simulate the general trend of the data fairly well but that the two time series models capture the detail better. The system theoretic time series model fares the best, providing consistently better forecasts of all three series. We conclude that this model would be valuable for use in planning water supply systems in the Eel River basin.