Open AccessAN ENCOMPASSING APPROACH TO MODELING FISHERY DYNAMICS: MODELING DYNAMIC NONLINEAR SYSTEMS
Author(s) -
Criddle Keith R.,
Havenner Arthur M.
Publication year - 1991
Publication title -
natural resource modeling
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.28
H-Index - 32
eISSN - 1939-7445
pISSN - 0890-8575
DOI - 10.1111/j.1939-7445.1991.tb00231.x
Subject(s) - nonlinear system , lag , computer science , series (stratigraphy) , specification , state space , taylor series , econometrics , system dynamics , mathematical economics , mathematics , artificial intelligence , statistics , computer network , paleontology , mathematical analysis , physics , quantum mechanics , biology
Uncertainty about the nature and significance of nonlinearities and the manner in which dynamics affect future realizations makes model specification the most difficult aspect of modeling dynamic systems. By interpreting several popular fishery models as subcases of a nesting dynamic Taylor series approximation, we isolate the specification differences between these models in a way that accounts for commonalities. On the argument that the differences due to alternative nonlinear forms are likely to be small compared to more mundane considerations such as delay difference and general dynamic lag specification, we propose an alternative model that uses the terms from the first order approximation common to all models combined with a data‐based determination of the appropriate lags using the methods of state space time series analysis. Finally, the success of the alternative models is judged in an application to Pacific halibut data.