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Profitability of the Short‐Run Contrarian Strategy in Canadian Stock Markets
Author(s) -
Assoe Kodjovi,
Sy Oumar
Publication year - 2003
Publication title -
canadian journal of administrative sciences / revue canadienne des sciences de l'administration
Language(s) - French
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.347
H-Index - 48
eISSN - 1936-4490
pISSN - 0825-0383
DOI - 10.1111/j.1936-4490.2003.tb00707.x
Subject(s) - contrarian , profitability index , stock (firearms) , economics , transaction cost , financial economics , welfare economics , operations research , business , microeconomics , finance , mathematics , engineering , mechanical engineering
Using a time‐varying three‐factor pricing model, this paper examines the profitability of the short‐term contrarian strategy in Canadian stock markets from January 1964 to December 1998. This strategy, which consists in buying losing stocks and selling winning stocks of the previous month, generates statistically significant excess unrestricted returns. However, we show that this result is mainly driven by small firms, especially in January. Moreover, results indicate that short‐term contrarian investing is not economically profitable when we account for transaction costs. Résumé La presente éetude utilise un modele d'evaluation conditionnelle a trois facteurs pour examiner la rentabilitée a cours terme de la strategie dite «contrarian» sur les marches boursiers canadiens entre janvier 1964 et decembre 1998. Cette strategie, qui consiste a acheter les titres les mains performants et a vendre les titres les plus performants du mois precedent, genere des rendements anormaux statistiquement significatifs. Cependant, nous montrons que ce resultat est principalemenl attribuable aux titres des firmes de petite taille, surtout en janvier. Plus encore, la strategie contrarian n'est pas economiquement rentable lorsqu'on prend en consideration les couts de transaction.