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Changes in hepatitis C viral load during first 14 days can predict the undetectable time point of serum viral load by pegylated interferon and ribavirin therapy
Author(s) -
Itakura Jun,
Asahina Yasuhiro,
Tamaki Nobuharu,
Hirayama Itsuko,
Yasui Yutaka,
Tanaka Tomohiro,
Sato Mitsuaki,
Ueda Ken,
Kuzuya Teiji,
Tsuchiya Kaoru,
Nakanishi Hiroyuki,
Kurosaki Masayuki,
Gabriel Gretchen S.,
Schneider George J.,
Izumi Namiki
Publication year - 2011
Publication title -
hepatology research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.123
H-Index - 75
eISSN - 1872-034X
pISSN - 1386-6346
DOI - 10.1111/j.1872-034x.2010.00768.x
Subject(s) - ribavirin , viral load , medicine , pegylated interferon , gastroenterology , hepatitis c virus , combination therapy , hepatitis c , immunology , interferon , virology , virus
Aim: In the treatment of chronic hepatitis C, pegylated interferon (PEG‐IFN) and ribavirin combination therapy must be continued for an adequate duration to improve the rate of sustained virological response. We attempted to predict the time point at which serum hepatitis C virus (HCV) RNA are undetectable during combination therapy. Methods: Patients with HCV genotype 1b were enrolled in a model preparation ( n = 35) and a validation group ( n = 70). All patients received PEG‐IFN‐α‐2b/ribavirin combination therapy for at least 48 weeks, and serological samples were screened a minimum of 17 times during the therapy. Serum HCV RNA were measured by the Abbott RealTi m e HCV assay. Using the HCV dynamics model described by Neumann et al ., we used multiple linear regression analysis to select factors that affected the undetectable time point. Results: Difference in viral load between weeks 1 and 2 was the only predictive factor for the undetectable time point of serum HCV RNA ( r 2 = 0.67, P < 0.0005), and we derived the following prediction equation: undetectable time point (week) = 13.495 × (viral load at day 14 [log IU/mL] − viral load at day 7 [log IU/mL]) + 25.456. The equation was applicable to the validation group. Conclusion: We created a formula for predicting the undetectable time point from viral load measurements early in PEG‐IFN‐α‐2b/ribavirin combination therapy. An early response reflects sensitivity to therapy, and the estimation of an undetectable time point would be useful for determining the optimal duration of treatment for chronic hepatitis C patients.