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FORECASTING RECESSION IN SOUTH AFRICA: A COMPARISON OF THE YIELD CURVE AND OTHER ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Author(s) -
Khomo Melvin Muzi,
Aziakpono Meshach Jesse
Publication year - 2007
Publication title -
south african journal of economics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.502
H-Index - 31
eISSN - 1813-6982
pISSN - 0038-2280
DOI - 10.1111/j.1813-6982.2007.00117.x
Subject(s) - recession , yield curve , economics , probit model , econometrics , index (typography) , yield (engineering) , economic indicator , stock (firearms) , predictive power , interest rate , macroeconomics , geography , computer science , philosophy , materials science , archaeology , epistemology , world wide web , metallurgy
The paper uses the standard probit model proposed by Estrella and Mishkin (1996), as well as the modified probit model suggested by Dueker (1997), to examine the ability of the yield curve to predict recessions in South Africa, and compares its predictive power with other commonly used variables such as the growth rate of real money supply, changes in stock prices and the index of leading economic indicators. Compared with other indicators, real M3 growth does not provide much information about future recessions, whilst movements in the All‐Share index provide information for up to 12 months but do not do better than the yield curve. The index of leading economic indicators outperforms the yield spread in the short run up to 4 months but the yield spread performs better at longer horizons.