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FORECASTING INVESTMENT NEEDS IN SOUTH AFRICA'S ELECTRICITY AND TELECOM SECTORS
Author(s) -
Bogetić żeljko,
Fedderke Johannes W.
Publication year - 2006
Publication title -
south african journal of economics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.502
H-Index - 31
eISSN - 1813-6982
pISSN - 0038-2280
DOI - 10.1111/j.1813-6982.2006.00079.x
Subject(s) - investment (military) , electricity , order (exchange) , economics , panel data , electricity demand , agricultural economics , business , telecommunications , finance , electricity generation , econometrics , engineering , power (physics) , physics , electrical engineering , quantum mechanics , politics , political science , law
The paper uses 52‐country panel‐data for the period 1980‐2002 to estimate demand for electricity and telecom services and, based on these estimates, project investment needs in South Africa through 2010 for two growth scenarios. Projections of average annual investment needs in electricity and telecom for the current growth scenario (3.6% per annum) are of the order of 0.2% and 0.75% of GDP, respectively. An alternative, accelerated growth scenario (6% per annum) implies an approximate doubling of investment needs in these sectors.