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The Macro Implications of HIV/AIDS in South Africa: A Preliminary Assessment
Author(s) -
Arndt C,
Lewis J D
Publication year - 2000
Publication title -
south african journal of economics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.502
H-Index - 31
eISSN - 1813-6982
pISSN - 0038-2280
DOI - 10.1111/j.1813-6982.2000.tb01283.x
Subject(s) - developing country , human immunodeficiency virus (hiv) , work (physics) , political science , library science , economic growth , sociology , management , economics , medicine , engineering , mechanical engineering , family medicine , computer science
South Africa now stands at the brink of a full-blown AIDS crisis. The key question now is to how to deal with the impending crisis. The epidemic has moved beyond its earlier status as a health issue to become a development issue, with social, political, and economic dimensions. This paper focuses on the economic aspects. While the research and policy analysis agenda is large, the authors' objectives in this paper are more modest: they undertake a preliminary analysis of the macroeconomic effects of the AIDS epidemic for South Africa using an economy-wide modeling framework. The outline of the paper is as follows: First, the authors review the major channels through which the HIV/AIDS epidmeic affects economic activity. Next, they describe the analytic approach employed in this paper, which involves constructing a disaggregated model of the South African economy that embodies the important AIDS-economy linkages identified above. Finally, they use the model to generate alternative medium-term scenarios to simulate the quantitative impact of these AIDS-related effects on macroeconomic performance.