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FUTURE GROWTH PATTERNS IN SOUTH AFRICA—A COMMENT *
Author(s) -
PLESSIS T. A.,
STRYDOM P. D. F.
Publication year - 1969
Publication title -
south african journal of economics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.502
H-Index - 31
eISSN - 1813-6982
pISSN - 0038-2280
DOI - 10.1111/j.1813-6982.1969.tb02516.x
Subject(s) - hogan , economics , econometrics , econometric model , growth model , mathematical economics , macroeconomics , sociology , anthropology
In their article Bailey and Hogan 1 employ an econometric model containing 12 endogenous variables to be explained by 10 behaviour equations, two identities and 8 predetermined variables. An open Keynesian model is employed to present projections of possible future growth patterns of the South African economy for the period 1969/80. The performance of any model is to a large extent determined by the rationale behind the equations, and the plausibility of the coefficients used. It is the purpose of this comment, firstly, to offer certain criticisms of the equations and coefficients in the model; secondly, to discuss the growth rates of the exogenous variables used in the Economic Development Programme (EDP), 2 and criticised by Bailey and Hogan, and finally to evaluate the performance of the model.