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FOREX DEALERS‘ PERSPECTIVES ON EXCHANGE RATE DETERMINATION IN KOREA
Author(s) -
Ahn Changmo,
Fane George,
Suh And EuyHoon
Publication year - 2004
Publication title -
economic papers: a journal of applied economics and policy
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.245
H-Index - 19
eISSN - 1759-3441
pISSN - 0812-0439
DOI - 10.1111/j.1759-3441.2004.tb00360.x
Subject(s) - speculation , exchange rate , foreign exchange market , herding , monetary economics , arbitrage , market liquidity , portfolio , financial economics , business , economics , foreign exchange , finance , forestry , geography
This paper reports on a survey of dealers in the Korean foreign exchange market. The trade balance and foreign portfolio investment are reported to be the two most important variables in determining the exchange rate. Although dealers believe that fundamental factors are important, their decisions, particularly in the short run, are also affected by ‘noise’ factors such as herding behaviour, the use of charts and trends, the advice of opinion leaders, and positions that have already been taken. Speculation is perceived positively as enhancing market efficiency and liquidity. Arbitrage is limited by risk aversion and the unpredictability of future exchange rate changes.