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A mathematical model for evaluating tuberculosis screening strategies
Author(s) -
Jia Zhongwei,
Cheng Shiming,
Jia Xiaowei
Publication year - 2011
Publication title -
journal of evidence‐based medicine
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.885
H-Index - 22
ISSN - 1756-5391
DOI - 10.1111/j.1756-5391.2011.01116.x
Subject(s) - tuberculosis , transmission (telecommunications) , immigration , disease , basic reproduction number , medicine , population , environmental health , order (exchange) , demography , computer science , geography , telecommunications , business , pathology , archaeology , finance , sociology
In order to better predict epidemic of tuberculosis (TB) and evaluate the effect of TB control strategies, we added the effect of transmission from permanent residents to migrants to our previous TB model. We simulated the behavior of TB transmission by the extended model. The numerical simulation indicated that the basic reproductive numbers must be less than one in both permanent residents and migrants in order to eliminate the disease from total population. We also evaluated the Canada's TB screening strategy and observe that TB is sensitive to the strategy. Our study suggests that immigrants have a considerable influence on the overall transmission dynamics behavior of tuberculosis. The effective TB control measures should incorporate migrant as well the permanent residents.