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Predicting Outcomes with Juvenile Court Case Histories
Author(s) -
Williams James D.,
Rogers Joseph R.
Publication year - 1996
Publication title -
juvenile and family court journal
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.155
H-Index - 19
eISSN - 1755-6988
pISSN - 0161-7109
DOI - 10.1111/j.1755-6988.1996.tb00745.x
Subject(s) - juvenile court , juvenile delinquency , psychology , situational ethics , set (abstract data type) , criminology , denial , discriminant function analysis , notice , blame , social psychology , law , political science , computer science , psychoanalysis , machine learning , programming language
This report supplements a prior article in this journal (Rogers and Williams, 1994). Utilizing Ted Palmer's 1991 formulation, we identified a set of indicators relevant to juvenile court decision‐making and to policy formulation. Here, through a more stringent statistical technique, we provide additional evidence of the potential that juvenile court histories possess for both theory and practice. We explore case materials gained and maintained by juvenile probation officers as a way of generating outcome predictors for whether youth receive probation or institutionalization. Using discriminant function analysis, we obtain relatively good prediction. Delinquency history and social psychological variables are found to enhance prediction of case outcomes. Contrary to some scholars, we believe the juvenile court is here to stay. Thus, the fundamental issue becomes one of making it a more efficient, effective instrument for reintegrating youths it must serve. As this institution approaches its centennial in 1999, we believe the court must become a focal point of research. This article is intended to further that task. After identifying the three strongest predictive variables (offense after first hearing, alienation, and denial of blame), we employ our seven key indicators as a guide for illustrating their everyday application for juvenile probation officers working with their youthful clientele.