Risks of premature death from smoking in 15‐year‐old Australians

This cross‐sectional actuarial analysis of 1990 mortality data aimed to estimate absolute risk of premature death from all causes, and from lung cancer, ischaemic heart disease and chronic bronchitis/emphysema due to tobacco smoking in the Australian population, and to estimate the number of current 15‐year‐old smokers in the 1990 Australian population who will die prematurely due to smoking. Competing risks were allowed for in the calculations. In males, conditional life expectancy for 15‐year‐olds was 78.0 years in nonsmokers, 73.3 years in ever‐smokers, and 71.5 years in smokers of more than one packet a day. For 15‐year‐old females, life expectancy was 82.0 years in nonsmokers, 78.4 years in eversmokers, and 76.9 years in smokers of more than one packet a day. The risk of premature death due to smoking in ever‐smokers was estimated as 14.6 per cent in males (before 75 years) and 11.9 per cent in females (before 80 years), with lung cancer (male: 4.2 per cent; female: 3.4 per cent), ischaemic heart disease (male: 3.7 per cent; female: 1.7 per cent) and chronic bronchitis/emphysema (male: 2.4 per cent; female: 2.5 per cent) as the major contributors. From one year of 15‐year‐old male smokers (26 713), 3 916 premature deaths due to tobacco can be expected; this includes 1 106 lung cancer deaths, 991 ischaemic heart disease deaths and 641 chronic bronchitis/emphysema deaths. From one year of 15‐year‐old female smokers (32 355), 3 861 premature deaths can be expected; this includes 1 086 lung cancer deaths, 559 ischaemic heart disease deaths and 798 chronic bronchitis/emphysema deaths.