Open AccessClimate change‐induced impacts on urban flood risk influenced by concurrent hazards
Author(s) -
Pedersen A.N.,
Mikkelsen P.S.,
ArnbjergNielsen K.
Publication year - 2012
Publication title -
journal of flood risk management
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.049
H-Index - 36
ISSN - 1753-318X
DOI - 10.1111/j.1753-318x.2012.01139.x
Subject(s) - flood myth , climate change , environmental science , copula (linguistics) , natural hazard , storm surge , return period , coastal flood , climatology , physical geography , geography , meteorology , sea level rise , econometrics , geology , mathematics , oceanography , storm , archaeology
In coastal regions, several hazards may lead to floods, and if they occur concurrently, the damage will be higher than for the hazards individually. The paper outlines an approach for carrying out a risk analysis with several hazards and applies it on a case study in G reater C openhagen where two hazards, rainfall and sea surge, are both important. The core in the methodology is the application of copula functions as an extension of one‐dimensional risk analysis and projections of future climatic changes. The results for G reater C openhagen indicate that the dependence between the hazards is weak and that climate change most likely will not increase the correlation. The overall change in flood return periods over a forecast horizon of 110 years are estimated to decrease by one to three orders of magnitude.