Open AccessModelling fluctuations of C aspian S ea levels using a mixed probability distribution
Author(s) -
Kozhevnikova I.,
Shveikina V.,
Domínguez E.
Publication year - 2012
Publication title -
journal of flood risk management
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.049
H-Index - 36
ISSN - 1753-318X
DOI - 10.1111/j.1753-318x.2011.01116.x
Subject(s) - probability density function , probability distribution , nonlinear system , mathematics , mixing (physics) , statistical physics , distribution (mathematics) , polynomial , statistics , environmental science , physics , mathematical analysis , quantum mechanics
Abstract By applying a nonlinear regression root analysis, this paper evaluates the significance of an emerging third stable steady state for the C aspian S ea level. A theoretical probability density function ( PDF ) is built and fitted to empirical data by mixing three different normal distributions. From this mixed probability distribution, a drift coefficient is obtained for the corresponding diffusive process. A stochastic model is then proposed, which uses the derived drift coefficient. This model demonstrates better performance than that exhibited by polynomial approximations and open possibilities for hydrological risk assessment of systems with several stable steady states.