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Energy consumption in Iran with Bayesian approach 1
Author(s) -
Abbasinejad Hossein,
Gudarzi Farahani Yazdan,
Asghari Ghara Ehsan
Publication year - 2012
Publication title -
opec energy review
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 1753-0237
pISSN - 1753-0229
DOI - 10.1111/j.1753-0237.2012.00224.x
Subject(s) - consumption (sociology) , energy consumption , economics , electricity , energy (signal processing) , natural resource economics , fossil fuel , econometrics , agricultural economics , statistics , engineering , mathematics , social science , sociology , electrical engineering , waste management
Energy is one of the most important influential factors on economic growth. In recent decades, upward trend of energy consumption has caused many concerns about decrease in energy source and increase in pollution and global warming. Iran as one of the greatest oil and natural gas exporters with high consumption of gas, oil and electricity faces with pollution problems in cities and hence the necessity of a plan to decrease the energy consumption. In this paper, we study demand of energy consumption and predict consumption of diverse kinds of energy during 2010–2018. In this regard, by adopting Bayesian approach and with concern to data of 1970–2009, we forecast the trends of energy consumption. The result showed that during recent years, up to the average growth rate of energy consumption is equal to 1.8 per cent. The slower growth of energy consumption leads to a slower economic growth and in turn, causes a decline in energy consumption due to the structural changes in the Iran economy.