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Analysis and Predictive Models of Single‐Family Customer Response to Water Curtailments During Drought 1
Author(s) -
Polebitski Austin S.,
Palmer Richard N.
Publication year - 2013
Publication title -
jawra journal of the american water resources association
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.957
H-Index - 105
eISSN - 1752-1688
pISSN - 1093-474X
DOI - 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2012.00691.x
Subject(s) - ordinary least squares , cluster analysis , regression analysis , econometrics , environmental science , water resources , statistics , regression , variables , per capita , mathematics , agricultural economics , geography , economics , ecology , demography , population , sociology , biology
Polebitski, Austin S. and Richard N. Palmer, 2012. Analysis and Predictive Models of Single‐Family Customer Response to Water Curtailments During Drought. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 1‐12. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2012.00691.x Abstract: This research investigates customer response to demand management strategies during two drought periods in the City of Seattle. An analysis of customer response to voluntary water curtailments is conducted using k ‐means clustering to identify like groups of customers and behavior patterns. The clustering method identified important variables (household income, lot size, living space, and family size) useful in determining customer response to water curtailments. Ordinary least squares and spatial lag regression models are estimated using the first and second principal components of variables identified in the clustering analysis. Larger values of income, lot size, and living space enhanced water reductions whereas larger family size tended to reduce the effectiveness of curtailments. Projections of changes in Seattle’s built environment and demographics between 2000 and 2030 were obtained from an urban simulation model (UrbanSim) and were processed through the regression models to investigate changes in future curtailment effectiveness. This research found that increasing household size hardened demands (decreased curtailment effectiveness) whereas decreasing household size increased per‐capita curtailment effectiveness. These results suggest that changes in the number of residents within a home is likely to be the most important factor in determining future curtailment effectiveness.