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CLIMATE FORECASTS IN FLOOD PLANNING: PROMISE AND AMBIGUITY 1
Author(s) -
Wernstedt Kris,
Hersh Robert
Publication year - 2002
Publication title -
jawra journal of the american water resources association
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.957
H-Index - 105
eISSN - 1752-1688
pISSN - 1093-474X
DOI - 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2002.tb04375.x
Subject(s) - flood myth , flooding (psychology) , ambiguity , environmental resource management , flood forecasting , environmental science , climate change , environmental planning , computer science , climatology , water resource management , geography , geology , oceanography , archaeology , programming language , psychology , psychotherapist
Recent technical and scientific advances have increased the potential use of long term, seasonal climate forecasts for improving water resource management. This paper examines the role that forecasts, in particular those based on the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, can play in flood planning in the Pacific Northwest. While strong evidence exists of an association between ENSO signals and flooding in the region, this association is open to more than one interpretation depending on: (a) the metric used to test the strength of the association; (b) the definition of critical flood events; (c) site specific features of watersheds; and (d) the decision environment of flood management institutions. A better understanding and appreciation of such ambiguities, both social and statistical, will help facilitate the use of climate forecast information for flood planning and response.