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CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON THE HYDROLOGY AND PRODUCTIVITY OF A PINE PLANTATION 1
Author(s) -
Sun Ge,
Amatya Devendra M.,
McNulty Steven G.,
Skaggs R. Wayne,
Hughes Joseph H.
Publication year - 2000
Publication title -
jawra journal of the american water resources association
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.957
H-Index - 105
eISSN - 1752-1688
pISSN - 1093-474X
DOI - 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2000.tb04274.x
Subject(s) - environmental science , evapotranspiration , climate change , hydrology (agriculture) , precipitation , water table , watershed , drainage , primary production , productivity , water balance , soil water , growing season , ecosystem , groundwater , ecology , geography , geology , soil science , geotechnical engineering , macroeconomics , machine learning , meteorology , computer science , economics , biology
There are increasing concerns in the forestry community about global climate change and variability associated with elevated atmospheric CO 2 . Changes in precipitation and increases in air temperature could impose additional stress on forests during the next century. For a study site in Carteret County, North Carolina, the General Circulation Model, HADCM2, predicts that by the year 2099, maximum air temperature will increase 1.6 to 1.9°C, minimum temperature will increase 2.5 to 2.8°C, and precipitation will increase 0 to 10 percent compared to the mid‐1990s. These changes vary from season to season. We utilized a forest ecosystem process model, PnET‐II, for studying the potential effects of climate change on drainage outflow, evapotranspiration, leaf area index (LAI) and forest Net Primary Productivity (NPP). This model was first validated with long term drainage and LAI data collected at a 25‐ha mature loblolly pine ( Pinus taeda L.) experimental watershed located in the North Carolina lower coastal plain. The site is flat with poorly drained soils and high groundwater table. Therefore, a high field capacity of 20 cm was used in the simulation to account for the topographic effects. This modeling study suggested that future climate change would cause a significant increase of drainage (6 percent) and forest productivity (2.5 percent). Future studies should consider the biological feedback (i.e., stomata conductance and water use efficiency) to air temperature change.