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GREAT LAKES WATER RESOURCES: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ANALYSIS WITH TRANSIENT GCM SCENARIOS 1
Author(s) -
Chao Philip
Publication year - 1999
Publication title -
jawra journal of the american water resources association
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.957
H-Index - 105
eISSN - 1752-1688
pISSN - 1093-474X
DOI - 10.1111/j.1752-1688.1999.tb04233.x
Subject(s) - gcm transcription factors , environmental science , climate change , water resources , transient (computer programming) , climatology , hydrology (agriculture) , general circulation model , water resource management , geology , ecology , oceanography , geotechnical engineering , computer science , biology , operating system
The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers conducted an assessment of Great Lakes water resources impacts under transient climate change scenarios. The integrated model linked empirical regional climate downscaling, hydrologic and hydraulic models, and water resource use sub‐models. The water resource uses include hydropower, navigation, shoreline damages, and wetland area. The study is unique in that both steady‐state 2°CO 2 and transient global circulation model (GCM) scenarios were used and compared to each other. The results are consistent with other impact studies in that high scatter in regional climate among the GCM scenarios lead to high uncertainty in impacts. Nevertheless, the transient scenarios show that in the near‐term (approximately 20 years) significant changes could occur. This result only adds to the urgency of creating more flexible and robust management of water resources uses.