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PARAMETER UNCERTAINTY IN RAINFALL‐RUNOFF MODELING FOR POLDER SYSTEM DESIGN 1
Author(s) -
Yulianti J. S.,
Lence Barbara J.
Publication year - 1999
Publication title -
jawra journal of the american water resources association
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.957
H-Index - 105
eISSN - 1752-1688
pISSN - 1093-474X
DOI - 10.1111/j.1752-1688.1999.tb03586.x
Subject(s) - hydrograph , runoff curve number , runoff model , surface runoff , environmental science , monte carlo method , hydrology (agriculture) , flood control , flood myth , streamflow , statistics , mathematics , engineering , drainage basin , geotechnical engineering , geography , archaeology , cartography , biology , ecology
An approach is developed for incorporating the uncertainty of parameters for estimating runoff in the design of polder systems in ungaged watersheds. Monte Carlo Simulation is used to derive a set of realizations of streamflow hydrographs for a given design rainstorm using the U. S. Soil Conservation Service (SCS) unit hydrograph model. The inverse of the SCS curve number, which is a function of the antecedent runoff condition in the SCS model, is the random input in the Monte Carlo Simulation. Monte Carlo realizations of streamfiow hydrographs are used to simulate the performance of a polder flood protection system. From this simulation the probability of occurrence of flood levels for a particular hydraulic design may be used to evaluate its effectiveness. This approach is demonstrated for the Pluit Polder flood protection system for the City of Jakarta, Indonesia. While the results of the application indicate that uncertainty in the antecedent runoff condition is important, the effects of uncertainty in rainfall data, in additional runoff parameters, such as time to peak, in the hydraulic design, and in the rainfall‐runoff model selected should also be considered. Although, the SCS model is limited to agricultural conditions, the approach presented herein may be applied to other flood control systems if appropriate storm runoff models are selected.