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ESTIMATING THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING GROUNDWATER QUALITY STANDARDS 1
Author(s) -
Ahlfeld David P,
Islam M. Shafiqul.
Publication year - 1994
Publication title -
jawra journal of the american water resources association
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.957
H-Index - 105
eISSN - 1752-1688
pISSN - 1093-474X
DOI - 10.1111/j.1752-1688.1994.tb03317.x
Subject(s) - monte carlo method , hydrogeology , hydraulic conductivity , groundwater , probability distribution , environmental science , groundwater model , computer science , hydrology (agriculture) , statistics , mathematics , soil science , groundwater flow , geology , geotechnical engineering , aquifer , soil water
A model for estimating the probability of exceeding groundwater quality standards at environmental receptors based on a simple contaminant transport model is described. The model is intended for locations where knowledge about site‐specific hydrogeologic conditions is limited. An efficient implementation methodology using numerical Monte Carlo simulation is presented. The uncertainty in the contaminant transport system due to uncertainty in the hydraulic conductivity is directly calculated in the Monte Carlo simulations. Numerous variations of the deterministic parameters of the model provide an indication of the change in exceedance probability with change in parameter value. The results of these variations for a generic example are presented in a concise graphical form which provides insight into the topology of the exceedance probability surface. This surface can be used to assess the impact of the various parameters on exceedance probability.