Premium
MODEL ACCURACY IN SNOWMELT‐RUNOFF FORECASTS EXTENDING FROM 1 TO 20 DAYS 1
Author(s) -
Rango A.,
Martinec J.
Publication year - 1994
Publication title -
jawra journal of the american water resources association
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.957
H-Index - 105
eISSN - 1752-1688
pISSN - 1093-474X
DOI - 10.1111/j.1752-1688.1994.tb03305.x
Subject(s) - snowmelt , surface runoff , precipitation , environmental science , meteorology , water year , snow , climatology , quantitative precipitation forecast , structural basin , drainage basin , geography , geology , cartography , ecology , paleontology , biology
This paper examines the performance of snowmelt‐runoff models in conditions approximating real‐time forecast situations. These tests are one part of an intercomparison of models recently conducted by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Daily runoff from the Canadian snowmelt basin Illecille. waet (1155 km 2 , 509–3150 m a.s.l.) was forecast for 1 to 20 days ahead. The performance of models was better than in a previous WMO project, which dealt with runoff simulations from historical data, for the following reasons: (1) conditions for models were more favorable than a real‐time forecast situation because measured input data and not meteorological forecast inputs were distributed to the modelers; (2) the selected test basin was relatively easy to handle and familiar from the previous WMO project; and (3) all kinds of updating were allowed so that some models even improved their accuracy towards longer forecast times. Based on this experience, a more realistic follow‐up project can be imagined which would include temperature forecasts and quantitative precipitation forecasts instead of measured data.