Premium
RISK OF EXTREME EVENTS IN A MULTIOBJECTIVE FRAMEWORK 1
Author(s) -
Haimes Yacov Y,
Lambert James H.,
Li Duan
Publication year - 1992
Publication title -
jawra journal of the american water resources association
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.957
H-Index - 105
eISSN - 1752-1688
pISSN - 1093-474X
DOI - 10.1111/j.1752-1688.1992.tb03165.x
Subject(s) - extreme value theory , event (particle physics) , statistics , risk management , econometrics , range (aeronautics) , risk analysis (engineering) , computer science , mathematics , actuarial science , economics , engineering , business , physics , management , quantum mechanics , aerospace engineering
This paper summarizes advances made in risk‐based decisionmaking in water resources through use of the partitioned multiobjective risk method (PMRM). ( Risk is a measure of the probability and severity of adverse effects.) In the PMRM, the risk of extreme events is differentiated from risk involving less extreme damage severity and is evaluated within a multiobjective framework. Study of the extreme‐event risk function f 4 (*) has addressed the following issues: methods for calculating f 4 (*); the sensitivity of f 4 (*) to various parameters, particularly to the partitioning point of the extreme‐event range and the selection of probability density functions; insight provided by the statistics of extremes; and the impact of f 4 (*) on risk management, for example, in the application of the PMRM to water resources problems. In particular, this paper shares with the reader recent research results on the PMRM, the relationship between the statistics of extremes and the conditional expected value, derived formulas for f 4 (*), distribution‐free estimates of f 4 (*), documented case studies in dam safety, and future research directions.