Premium
USE OF CLIMATE PREDICTIONS TO DECIDE A WATER MANAGEMENT PROBLEM 1
Author(s) -
Chang Stanley A.,
Vonnhame Donald R.
Publication year - 1986
Publication title -
jawra journal of the american water resources association
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.957
H-Index - 105
eISSN - 1752-1688
pISSN - 1093-474X
DOI - 10.1111/j.1752-1688.1986.tb01919.x
Subject(s) - precipitation , negotiation , environmental science , climate change , natural resource economics , water resource management , environmental resource management , hydrology (agriculture) , meteorology , geography , economics , engineering , political science , geology , law , oceanography , geotechnical engineering
Seasonal precipitation predictions were utilized in a water management decision with major economic, societal, and political ramifications. A summer (1984) drought had created a situation calling for possible fall season use of state waters from two major multipurpose reservoirs with an ensuing effect on water price negotiations. Choices facing management and use of water from the reservoirs were to invoke expensive water restrictions with a 33 percent chance of being right, do nothing (66 percent chance of wrong outcome), or use the precipitation predictors (for above normal fall rain) having a 50 percent chance of error. Hydrologists chose to follow the precipitation predictions, which proved to be accurate for the fall of 1984, helping to reveal the long‐term value of using well understood climate predictions in water management.