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THE EFFECTS OF RISK AND RELIABILITY ON OPTIMAL RESERVOIR DESIGN 1
Author(s) -
Yazicigil Hasan,
Houck Mark H.
Publication year - 1984
Publication title -
jawra journal of the american water resources association
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.957
H-Index - 105
eISSN - 1752-1688
pISSN - 1093-474X
DOI - 10.1111/j.1752-1688.1984.tb04724.x
Subject(s) - reliability (semiconductor) , linear programming , streamflow , computer science , decision maker , flood control , environmental science , operations research , reliability engineering , flood myth , water resource management , drainage basin , engineering , power (physics) , philosophy , physics , cartography , theology , quantum mechanics , geography , algorithm
A chance‐constrained linear programming model, which utilizes multiple linear decision rules and is useful for river basin planning, is used to evaluate the effects of risk and reliability on optimal reservoir design. Streamflow forecasts or predictions can be explicitly included in the linear program. The risk associated with the predictions is included in the model through the use of cumulative distribution functions (CDF) of streamflows which are conditioned on the predictions. A multiple‐purpose reservoir on the Gunpowder River in Maryland is used to illustrate the effectiveness of the model. In order to provide the decision makers with complete and useful information, trade‐off curves relating minimum reservoir capacity (a surrogate for dam costs), water supply and flood control targets, and the reliability of achieving the targets are developed. The trade‐off curves may enhance the decision maker's ability to select the best dam capacity, considering technological and financial constraints as well as the trade‐offs between targets, risks, and costs.