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A STATISTICAL MODEL FOR SMALL LAKE WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT 1
Author(s) -
Ciecka James,
Fabian Robert,
Merilatt Dan
Publication year - 1979
Publication title -
jawra journal of the american water resources association
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.957
H-Index - 105
eISSN - 1752-1688
pISSN - 1093-474X
DOI - 10.1111/j.1752-1688.1979.tb01131.x
Subject(s) - water quality , environmental science , hydrology (agriculture) , quality (philosophy) , water resource management , geology , physics , ecology , geotechnical engineering , biology , quantum mechanics
Phosphorus loading tolerances of small lakes are analyzed by means of a statistical model of lake eutrophication based upon the work of Vollenweider and Dillon. Using a sample of 195 midwestern and eastern U. S. lakes, it was found that Vollenweider and Dillon's method of predicting the trophic status of relatively deep, slow‐flushing lakes can be applied to shallower lakes with much shorter retention times. The statistical model used to replicate the results of Vollenweider and Dillon is stated in detail, for convenience of application to small lake water quality management problems. The model extends the Vollenweider and Dillon results by associating each alternative phosphorous loading with a probability that a given lake can achieve or maintain noneutrophis status. It is applicable to lakes for which only minimal data are available. The major policy conclusion is that the highly variable tolerance for phosphorus loading must be considered in legislating efficient effluent limitations. The paper concludes with a comparison to a recent contribution employing a similar approach.