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THE USE OF A SIMPLE MODEL AND UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS IN LAKE MANAGEMENT 1
Author(s) -
Reckhow Kenneth
Publication year - 1979
Publication title -
jawra journal of the american water resources association
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.957
H-Index - 105
eISSN - 1752-1688
pISSN - 1093-474X
DOI - 10.1111/j.1752-1688.1979.tb00382.x
Subject(s) - uncertainty analysis , sensitivity analysis , regression analysis , sampling (signal processing) , environmental science , statistics , variable (mathematics) , econometrics , hydrology (agriculture) , computer science , mathematics , engineering , filter (signal processing) , geotechnical engineering , computer vision , mathematical analysis
A simple, black‐box lake model was developed for phosphorus, using nonlinear regression analysis on a data base of north temperate lakes. The uncertainty associated with the model was then combined with the parameter uncertainty and the independent variable uncertainty to provide an estimate of the confidence limits associated with a predicted value. The prediction uncertainty is often neglected, yet it is an important measure of the usefulness of a model. Prediction uncertainty reflects the modeler's confidence in the model, and it should be used by a decision maker as a weight indicating the value of the model prediction. A procedure is outlined that combined lake modeling and uncertainty analysis for use in lake quality assessment and lake management. An example is provided illustrating the use of this procedure in nutrient budget sampling design, data analysis, and the evaluation of lake management strategies for a 208 program in New Hampshire.