Premium
ANALYSIS OF UNCERTAINTY IN FLOOD PLAIN MAPPING 1
Author(s) -
Burges Stephen J.
Publication year - 1979
Publication title -
jawra journal of the american water resources association
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.957
H-Index - 105
eISSN - 1752-1688
pISSN - 1093-474X
DOI - 10.1111/j.1752-1688.1979.tb00303.x
Subject(s) - flood myth , floodplain , 100 year flood , population , hydrology (agriculture) , coastal plain , environmental science , credibility , geography , geology , cartography , geotechnical engineering , demography , archaeology , sociology , paleontology , political science , law
Components contributing to uncertainty in the location of the flood plain fringe of a mapped flood plain are identified and examined to determine their relative importance. First‐order uncertainty analysis is used to provide a procedure for quantifying the magnitude of uncertainty in the location of the flood plain fringe. Application of the procedure indicated that one standard deviation of uncertainty in flood plain inundation width was about one third of the mean computed inundation width for several flood population‐flood geometry combinations. Suggested mapping criteria, which directly incorporate uncertainty estimates, are given. While these criteria are more suitable for use in developing areas than in flood plains that have had extensive development, the analysis procedure can be used to accommodate property owners who challenge the validity of estimated flood fringe boundaries. Use of uncertainty analysis in flood plain mapping should enhance the credibility of the final plan.