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A METHOD FOR INCORPORATING AGRICULTURAL RISK INTO A WATER RESOURCE SYSTEM PLANNING MODEL 1
Author(s) -
Conner J. R.,
Freund R. J.,
Godwin M. R.
Publication year - 1971
Publication title -
jawra journal of the american water resources association
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.957
H-Index - 105
eISSN - 1752-1688
pISSN - 1093-474X
DOI - 10.1111/j.1752-1688.1971.tb05783.x
Subject(s) - resource (disambiguation) , irrigation , risk aversion (psychology) , water supply , computer science , agriculture , risk analysis (engineering) , risk assessment , water resources , economic risk , water resource management , environmental economics , environmental science , business , environmental engineering , expected utility hypothesis , economics , mathematics , statistics , computer network , ecology , computer security , biology
Prior studies of water resource systems have considered risk from the point of view that only the system planners could react to the effects of the risk elements. However, users of water from a system also react to risk. When the quantity of water that a system can supply is subject to considerable variation, the reactions of the users of the water will often effect the benefits generated by the system and thus its optimal design characteristics. A simulation model of a reservoir‐irrigation system is developed which incorporates the water users' reactions to risk in such a manner as to reflect their influence on the optimal design characteristics. A risk (convex) programming algorithm is incorporated into the model to reflect the water users' reactions to various levels of aversion to risk and degree of uncertainty in water deliveries. Response surfaces are generated as a result of performing the simulation at different levels of the design variables. An examination of these surfaces reveals the importance of including water users' reactions to risk in water resource system planning. The effects of different levels of risk aversion on the irrigation farmers' choice of crop enterprises are also examined.