Premium
SPURIOUS CYCLES IN WATER RESOURCES SYSTEMS 1
Author(s) -
Bieve Avlo W.
Publication year - 1970
Publication title -
jawra journal of the american water resources association
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.957
H-Index - 105
eISSN - 1752-1688
pISSN - 1093-474X
DOI - 10.1111/j.1752-1688.1970.tb01648.x
Subject(s) - spurious relationship , streamflow , series (stratigraphy) , mean flow , flow (mathematics) , environmental science , water resources , annual cycle , meteorology , hydrology (agriculture) , climatology , econometrics , statistics , mathematics , geology , geography , drainage basin , paleontology , ecology , geometry , cartography , geotechnical engineering , turbulence , biology
This paper reviews analytical procedures for deducing from annual streamflow data information required for water resources systems planning. The procedure relies on two techniques to determine the extent that cycles exist in annual time series data. The first is to observe how the time series behaves around the mean annual flow. If it tends not to move across the mean frequently, it is concluded that a cyclical nature exists. The second technique is to observe the time path of accumulated departures from the mean annual flow. The validity of both techniques is questioned. The first because it uses mean flow as “normal” or the flow that the time series should fluctuate around. The second because the accumulated departure from the mean time series will be autocor‐related even when the individual annual or seasonal flow observations are uncorrected. Alternative analytical techniques, which find no cycles, are presented.