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THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODEL TO EVALUATE HYDROLOGIC RISK IN WATER RESOURCE SYSTEM DESIGN 1
Author(s) -
Bathke William L.,
Freund R. J.,
Conner J. R.
Publication year - 1970
Publication title -
jawra journal of the american water resources association
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.957
H-Index - 105
eISSN - 1752-1688
pISSN - 1093-474X
DOI - 10.1111/j.1752-1688.1970.tb00508.x
Subject(s) - resource (disambiguation) , hydrological modelling , water resources , water supply , computer science , water resource management , environmental science , development (topology) , systems design , irrigation , civil engineering , hydrology (agriculture) , operations research , risk analysis (engineering) , environmental engineering , engineering , geology , business , mathematics , computer network , ecology , geotechnical engineering , climatology , biology , mathematical analysis , software engineering
In this paper, a procedure for analyzing a water resource system with special emphasis on evaluation of acceptable economic risk due to occasional failures to deliver water is proposed. The basic methodology includes the development of a simple mathematical model which describes the physical hydrologic and economic characteristics of a single reservoir irrigation and city water supply system and an evaluation of economic benefits of the system with full and partial deliveries of water. The system is simulated for various combinations of decision variables (system magnitudes) and an optimum design is obtained by response surface technology. Emphasis is placed on the basic model and methodology although, in order to introduce some realism, the procedure is applied to data based on the existing reservoir system on the South Concho River in West Central Texas.