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Time Series Based Errors and Empirical Errors in Fertility Forecasts in the Nordic Countries *
Author(s) -
Keilman Nico,
Pham Dinh Quang
Publication year - 2004
Publication title -
international statistical review
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.051
H-Index - 54
eISSN - 1751-5823
pISSN - 0306-7734
DOI - 10.1111/j.1751-5823.2004.tb00220.x
Subject(s) - series (stratigraphy) , econometrics , fertility , statistics , time series , computer science , mathematics , demography , geology , population , paleontology , sociology
Summary We use ARCH time series models to derive model based prediction intervals for the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in Norway, Sweden, Finland, and Denmark up to 2050. For the short term (5–10 yrs), expected TFR‐errors are compared with empirical forecast errors observed in historical population forecasts prepared by the statistical agencies in these countries since 1969. Medium‐term and long‐term (up to 50 years) errors are compared with error patterns based on so‐called naïve forecasts, i.e. forecasts that assume that recently observed TFR‐levels also apply for the future.