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Introduction: How to Deal with Uncertainty in Population Forecasting?
Author(s) -
Lutz Wolfgang,
Goldstein Joshua R.
Publication year - 2004
Publication title -
international statistical review
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.051
H-Index - 54
eISSN - 1751-5823
pISSN - 0306-7734
DOI - 10.1111/j.1751-5823.2004.tb00219.x
Subject(s) - population , econometrics , forecast error , economics , geography , history , operations research , mathematics , demography , sociology
Demographers can no more be held responsible for inaccuracy in forecasting population 20 years ahead than geologists, meteorologists, or economists when they fail to announce earthquakes, cold winters, or depressions 20 years ahead. What we can be held responsible for is warning one another and our public what the error of our estimates is likely to be.–Nathan Keyfitz (1981)