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PROJECTIONS OF INCREASED NON‐MELANOMA SKIN CANCER INCIDENCE DUE TO OZONE DEPLETION
Author(s) -
Rundel R. D.,
Nachtwey D. S.
Publication year - 1983
Publication title -
photochemistry and photobiology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.818
H-Index - 131
eISSN - 1751-1097
pISSN - 0031-8655
DOI - 10.1111/j.1751-1097.1983.tb03386.x
Subject(s) - skin cancer , ozone depletion , ozone , ozone layer , melanoma , incidence (geometry) , cancer , environmental science , medicine , cancer research , meteorology , geography , mathematics , geometry
— Projections of increase in non‐melanoma skin cancer incidence due to ozone layer depletion by chlorofluorocarbons are presented. Projections have been made for five different ozone depletion scenarios, based on US. Environmental Protection Agency estimates of potential worldwide industrial production and commercial applications of chlorofluorocarbons, and their eventual release into the atmosphere. The least favorable scenario, a regulatory cap on production at estimated 1990 levels, would lead to an eventual 30% ozone depletion and to an eventual doubling of skin cancer incidence by the year 2300. The most favorable scenario, a reduction in production commencing now and reaching a low production target by 1990, would limit ozone depletion to an eventual 2.8%, and increase in skin cancer to about 5%. Compared to the least favorable scenario, the most favorable one would prevent an average of about 100,000 cases of skin cancer per year in the United States between now and the year 2100.