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THE USE OF SIMULATION MODELLING IN THE MANAGEMENT OF BRUCELLOSIS ERADICATION
Author(s) -
Beck A. C.
Publication year - 1977
Publication title -
australian veterinary journal
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.382
H-Index - 59
eISSN - 1751-0813
pISSN - 0005-0423
DOI - 10.1111/j.1751-0813.1977.tb05471.x
Subject(s) - brucellosis , government (linguistics) , bovine brucellosis , disease eradication , disease , epidemiology , medicine , operations research , environmental health , veterinary medicine , brucella abortus , computer science , engineering , pathology , philosophy , linguistics
SUMMARY Problems faced by Government veterinarians in the planning and implementation of the national bovine brucellosis eradication campaign are described. These problems stem from the uncertainty associated with the epidemiology of the disease and its initial status in eradication areas. They are compounded by constraints on abattoir capacity, finance and time. A computer simulation model is discussed which is designed to assist campaign organisers to cope with these problems. Inputs related to expected test and slaughter rates, district disease prevalence and proposed campaign intensity are entered into the model. Output from the model includes distributions giving predicted testing workloads, cattle slaughtered and disease status over the course of the campaign. The operation of the model is illustrated using data from the Bangalow district of New South Wales.