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Mathematically Assessing the Consequences of Food Terrorism Scenarios
Author(s) -
Liu Y.,
Wein L.M.
Publication year - 2008
Publication title -
journal of food science
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.772
H-Index - 150
eISSN - 1750-3841
pISSN - 0022-1147
DOI - 10.1111/j.1750-3841.2008.00874.x
Subject(s) - prioritization , food chain , probabilistic logic , food supply , terrorism , government (linguistics) , consumption (sociology) , business , food processing , food consumption , food safety , computer science , risk analysis (engineering) , environmental science , economics , food science , agricultural science , agricultural economics , biology , geography , artificial intelligence , ecology , linguistics , philosophy , process management , social science , archaeology , sociology
We derive mathematical expressions for the mean number of casualties resulting from a deliberate release of a biological or chemical agent into a food supply chain. Our analysis first computes the amount of contaminated food as a function of the network topology and vessel sizes in the food processing plant. A probabilistic analysis, in which each potential consumer of contaminated food has his own random purchase time, infectious dose, and incubation period, determines the number of people who consume enough tainted food to get infected or poisoned before the attack is detected and food consumption is halted. These simple formulas can be used by the U.S. government and the food industry to develop a rough‐cut prioritization of the threats from food terrorism, which would be a 1st step toward the allocation of appropriate prevention and mitigation resources.