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Estimating the Shelf Life of Brown Pan Bread, Suitability of Survival Analysis Methodology
Author(s) -
Salvador A.,
Varela P.,
Fiszman S.M.,
Gómez G.
Publication year - 2006
Publication title -
journal of food science
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.772
H-Index - 150
eISSN - 1750-3841
pISSN - 0022-1147
DOI - 10.1111/j.1750-3841.2006.00002.x
Subject(s) - shelf life , product (mathematics) , statistics , survival function , parametric statistics , econometrics , function (biology) , mathematics , estimation , survival analysis , food science , economics , biology , geometry , evolutionary biology , management
This paper uses survival analysis methodology to estimate the shelf life of brown pan bread. The key concept of survival analysis is to focus the shelf‐life estimation on consumer rejection rather than on product deterioration. The likelihood function, which corresponds to the joint probability of the consumers' observations, is established for a suitable parametric model. The parameters of the model are estimated via the maximization of the likelihood function. From these, the survival function, as well as other quantities of interest is estimated. Different models were applied to the brown pan bread data and used to predict, and compare, the shelf life of brown pan bread for F(t) = 0.25 and 0.50 (25% and 50% consumer rejection). The variation in consumer's global acceptability of the product throughout its shelf life was studied.